Tom Arms' World Review - 13 July 2025

Posted by Tom Arms on Liberal Democrat Voice
Sun 13th Jul 25 - 08:30

July 4th was America's Independence Day. It was also the day that Trump signed his Big Beautiful Bill. And it was the day that flash floods in Texas left At least 100 dead and more than 160 still missing. As the flood waters started to recede the blame game began, and it is clear that Trump's cuts are playing a major part in the disaster. At first it was thought that cuts in the National Weather Service were responsible. But it turns out that the meteorologists did accurately predict the storm and sent out the necessary warnings. The problem was ... (more)

Ancrum Road Primary School - 1990 #dundeewestend

Posted by Bailie Fraser Macpherson & Cllr Michael Crichton on Councillors Fraser Macpherson & Michael Crichton - working for the West End
Sun 13th Jul 25 - 07:00

With thanks to SJ Bogue and Dundee Memories, the opening of Ancrum Road Primary School's conservation area - June 1990. (more)

The growing number of children in poverty affected by two-child benefit cap

Posted by Peter Black on Peter Black
Sun 13th Jul 25 - 06:00

Labour's reluctance to remove the two-child benefit cap, the single most important thing they can do to alleviate child poverty, continues to have repercussions. The Independent reports that new figures have revealed that more than 1.66 million children are living in households affected by the cap. This new data brings the total number of children affected by the cap since Labour came into power a year ago to 300,000: New figures have revealed that more than 1.66 million children are living in households affected by the two-child benefit cap as campaigners ramp up calls for the controversial measure to be ... (more)

Risotto rice under threat from flamingoes in north-eastern Italy

Posted by Jonathan Calder on Liberal England
Sat 12th Jul 25 - 20:47

Despite the judges raising a collective eyebrow at the newspaper's choice of plural for "flamingo", our Headline of the Day Award goes to the Guardian. (more)

Taxation truths

Posted by Peter Wrigley on Keynesian Liberal
Sat 12th Jul 25 - 18:36

In the 22nd June this year the Observer published a useful article by Will Hutton containing some useful facts and perspective on taxation in the UK. This is a summary (published without his permission, but I hope he won't mind. I have tried to put information from the article in bold type, and my own minor interpolations in ordinary type 1.Next year (2026) the UK's tax take as a share of GDP will rise to its highest level in 70 years. The right-wing press will have a field-day flaunting this as speculation in the next few months continues about almost ... (more)

Meeting a nephew of Dennis O'Neill

Posted by Jonathan Calder on Liberal England
Sat 12th Jul 25 - 17:10

Twenty years ago, I published a chapter ("Histories of child abuse") in the book Making and Breaking Children's Lives. In it, I was feeling my way towards the thesis that child abuse is less a new discovery than a phenomenon that has been regularly uncovered and then forgotten. This belief grew from a time when I was producing psychology newsletters in my day job and studying for an MA in Victorian Studies in the evenings. This belief was strengthened as I came to realised that the caring professions knew as much about their own history as they did about 19th-century ... (more)

Thomas Hardy and Richard Jefferies on steam threshing machines

Posted by Jonathan Calder on Liberal England
Sat 12th Jul 25 - 14:51

Having blogged about the explosion that killed four men at Stonton Wyville, and then about the dangers posed by the boilers that powered steam threshing machines, I thought I would see how two masters of 19th-century rural literature wrote about these machines. Here's Thomas Hardy in Tess of the d'Urbevilles: Close under the eaves of the stack, and as yet barely visible, was the red tyrant that the women had come to serve—a timber-framed construction, with straps and wheels appertaining—the threshing-machine which, whilst it was going, kept up a despotic demand upon the endurance of their muscles and nerves. A ... (more)

Latest PollBase is out, with all the British voting intention polls since the 1930s

Posted by Mark Pack on Mark Pack
Sat 12th Jul 25 - 12:32

With the end of another, rather interesting, quarter, another update to PollBase, my database of British voting intention opinion polls since the 1930s is now up. It includes the first PM approval ratings from 1938 and first national voting intention scores from 1939. Download the new version here. Changes this time include: Additional Stack Data Strategy polling from the 2019 and 2024 Parliaments. Additional Gallup data from pre-1945 and from the 1945, 1950, 1951 and 1955 Parliaments. Additional and corrected data for some MORI polls from the 1974 Parliament. Additional NOP data from the October 1974, 1979, 1983 and 1987 ... (more)

Latest voting intention and leadership ratings opinion polls

Posted by Mark Pack on Mark Pack
Sat 12th Jul 25 - 11:46

Welcome to my summary of the latest national voting intention polls for the next general election, along with the latest MRP projections and party leadership ratings. If you'd like to find out more about how polls work, how reliable they are and how to make sense of them, check out my book, Polling UnPacked: the History, Uses and Abuses of Political Opinion Polls, or sign up for my weekly email, The Week in Polls: General election voting intention polls PollsterConLabLDGrnRefLab leadFieldwork Techne 18% (nc) 22% (-1) 16% (nc) 9% (+1) 29% (+1) -7% (vs Ref) 9-10/7 GB Find Out Now ... (more)

Observations of an ex pat: Leaving Trump

Posted by Tom Arms on Liberal Democrat Voice
Sat 12th Jul 25 - 10:30

Trump's Big Beautiful Bill helps the rich and hurts the poor. And yet, Trump was elected by a demographic shift of poor voters to Republican ranks. They voted for him not because they believe he supports the rich instead of them, but because they feel he speaks to their values, frustrations, and identity in ways that matter more to them than traditional economic policies. Trump validates their worldview.He gives them someone to blame for their struggles. He channels their anger into a story where they are the true Americans under siege. So how loyal is that base? Pretty loyal. For ... (more)