Latest voting intention and leadership ratings opinion pollsWelcome to my summary of the latest national voting intention polls for the next general election, along with the latest MRP projections and party leadership ratings. If you'd like to find out more about how polls work, how reliable they are and how to make sense of them, check out my book, Polling UnPacked: the History, Uses and Abuses of Political Opinion Polls, or sign up for my weekly email, The Week in Polls: General election voting intention polls PollsterConLabLDGrnRefLab leadFieldwork Find Out Now 18% (nc) 21% (+6) 12% (nc) 15% (-2) 24% (-3) -3% (vs Ref) 24-25/6 GB BMG ... (more) |
The Lib Dem strategy reviewThe party's ongoing strategy review is welcome. But collecting feedback is only the beginning. Turning it into a successful long-term strategy requires us to answer four fundamental questions. 1. What's the point of the Liberal Democrats? I've been asked this question, sneeringly, more than once. But, we do need to be clear what we want to achieve. More seats and votes are important, but they are not our ultimate aim. This question might seem quite abstract today – but it will be critical in the years to come. We are going to have to make difficult decisions when we are ... (more) |
Author's introduction to "Sliding Scales"Sliding Scales is a history of modern democracy from a liberal perspective. The dramatic transformation of the 19th century British Empire into a 20th century Commonwealth was a triumph of diplomacy. It had many setbacks and failures, but it did not lead to the havoc caused by the collapse of similar 19th century empires, which led to the wars in Algeria, the Congo, Vietnam and now Ukraine. It was not a sad down-sizing of power, but one which saved lives and civilizations. Its strengths were to be found in 'Free Trade' (Imperial Preference). It encouraged mutual aid among its member ... (more) |
13 seats change hands in council contestsTwenty-three (!) principal authority contests this week, for twenty-four seats, and although it has been a good start to this 2026-7 cycle of by-elections and deferred contests for the Liberal Democrats, this week alas was a bit different. There was though some good news: Dawlish South West (Teignbridge) Council By-Election Result: [IMG: 🔶] LDM: 45.3% (+6.6) [IMG: ➡] RFM: 29.5% (New) [IMG: 🌍] GRN: 15.1% (+3.8) [IMG: 🌳] CON: 10.1% (-12.8)No Ind (-27.1) as previous.Liberal Democrat HOLD.Changes w/ 2023. — Election Maps UK (@electionmaps.uk) 2026-06-26T06:37:37.371Z These by-election results round-ups cover principal authority by-elections as it's only those for which comprehensive ... (more) |
Our voting system isn't just unfair. It's becoming dangerous.Soon after I was elected in July 2024, I was approached by a man in Cirencester Market Place who congratulated me on my win. He'd voted in every general election since 1974, he said, and this was the first time he had ever voted for a winning candidate. For most of that time, he told me, he had barely bothered looking at the names on the ballot paper. He already knew who would win, but had voted out of habit – "or maybe just stubbornness" – but knew that it would, in effect, be a wasted vote. South Cotswolds is ... (more) |
How four bison brought new life to ancient woodland in KentHere's a video from Dr Edmund Hale that makes rewilding seem not a wild flight of fancy but common sense: Bison reintroduction in England began in 2022 when four European bison were released into West Blean Woods near Canterbury, Kent - the first wild bison in Britain for thousands of years. This rewilding experiment had one goal: save a dying ancient woodland that conventional conservation, chainsaws, and machinery had failed to fix. What these ecosystem engineers did next with bark, hooves, and pure instinct stunned the scientists monitoring them. Within weeks, the bison tore open the sealed forest canopy, stripped ... (more) |
Andy Burnham's transport record: Who benefits and who gets left behind?Transport has become one of Andy Burnham's defining issues as Mayor of Greater Manchester. He has championed the Bee Network, argued for London-style powers and made public transport central to his vision for the city region. There have been real achievements. Greater Manchester has introduced bus franchising, giving local leaders more control over routes, fares and standards. The region is also moving towards a more integrated transport system. However, the key question is not who controls the network. It is whether people can get where they need to go quickly, reliably and affordably. For many residents, the answer is yes. ... (more) |
Council by-election results scorecard 2026-2027Here's the tally of seats changing hands in principal authority council by-elections held between the May 2026 and the May 2027 local elections: Con Lab Lib Dem Green Reform SNP Plaid Ind/ Other Net Con [5] – +1 (+2/-1) -1 (0/-1) -2 (+2/-4) – – +1 (+1/0) -1 Lab – [4] – -1 (+1/-2) -3 (0/-3) – – +1 (+1/0) -3 Lib Dem -1 (+1/-2) – [7] – – -1 (0/-1) – +1 (+1/0) -1 Grn +1 (+1/0) +1 (+2/-1) – [5] – – – – +2 Ref +2 (+4/-2) +3 (+3/0) – – [3] – -1 (0/-1) – +4 ... (more) |
The street in Australia named after my great great grandfatherMy family history stuff is put away and I'm far too hot to go and look for it, so this is written from memory, but I think it's right. I've posted a lot about my great great grandmother's brother Sandy Campbell and also about her sister Johanna Robertson Campbell. Both were senior members of Queen Victoria's staff at Balmoral. But what about my great great grandmother Jane Clark Campbell? She died aged only 22, having already had an illegitimate son with a man called Alexander Calder. The boy, my great grandfather, was brought up by the Campbell family in Scotland, ... (more) |
How many councillors has Reform UK lost since the May 2026 elections?Given how popular (and lengthy!) my list of Reform councillor departures after the May 2025 elections turned out to be, here is a new list, this time for councillors elected under the Reform banner on 7 May 2026, or in by-elections after that date, who have already departed the party for one reason or another. Jay Cooper, Sefton: declared "not welcome" by Nigel Farage following reports of him calling the Holocaust a hoax and then resigned from the party (May 2026). Stuart Prior, Essex: expelled by Reform and resigned as a councillor after "he was accused the week before the ... (more) |