Observations of an Expat: The CostTrump's War against Iran has upended the world economy. And it has only just begun. As one economist said: "At the moment things are bad. They are going to get worse and they could become catastrophic." At the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) spring meeting of world finance ministers the IMF revised down world economic growth for 2026 from 3.3 percent to 3.1 percent. It then went on to warn that if the Iran War continued much longer there was a real risk of a global recession. Of the world's advanced economies, the UK is the hardest hit according to both ... (more) |
Scottish Liberal Democrats launch manifesto focused on health, cost of living, transport and educationScottish Liberal Democrat leader Alex Cole-Hamilton has launched his party's manifesto focused on the issues that matter most to people right now, and made a plea to voters to back his party on the peach regional ballot to deliver change with fairness at its heart. The manifesto can be found here. Speaking at the Edinburgh Food & Drink Academy where he baked peach tarts for journalists, Mr Cole-Hamilton set out the party's ten target constituency seats which would enable it to block the SNP from winning a parliamentary majority as well as the party's four key priorities for the election: ... (more) |
The church at the centre of Swansea and the devil that haunted itSwansea Minster, formerly St Mary's Church, is an Anglican church in the centre of Swansea, Wales. It is considered the civic church of Swansea, having been designated as Wales' first minster church by the Church in Wales in 2024. As Wikipedia says, there has been a church on the site of St Mary's since circa 1328, which was erected by Henry de Gower, Bishop of Saint David's. It has rebuilt many times: One Sunday morning, in 1739, the roof of the nave collapsed into the church while the congregation was waiting to enter the building. The whole structure was re-built ... (more) |
How many councillors has Reform UK lost since May?Here is a list of the councillors which Reform has shed from the May 2025 local elections and from those elections in by-elections since. The latest updates are the conviction for breaking election law of a Reform councillor and the loss of a councillor in Wales. Donna Edmunds (Shropshire, suspended by Reform UK and then quit the party; later joined Advance UK) Luke Shingler (Warwickshire, now an independent) Desmond Clarke (Nottinghamshire, resigned as councillor) Andrew Kilburn (Durham, resigned as a councillor) Wayne Titley (Staffordshire, resigned as a councillor) Mark Broadhurst (Doncaster, expelled by Reform) Adam Smith (West Northamptonshire, suspended by ... (more) |
The long, long apprenticeship of Sir Nigel HawthorneBefore Yes Minister made him famous in 1980, Nigel Hawthorne served a long apprenticeship in the acting profession. But I had not grasped till recently just how long that apprenticeship had been. If you click on the arrow above, you will see him in a scene from Going Straight, the short-lived sitcom that followed Norman Stanley Fletcher after his release from the Slade Prison of Porridge. That scene dates from 1978, but he had a bit part in an episode of Dad's Army as early as 1969. I recall a story that someone had gone to David Croft on Hawthorne's ... (more) |
Latest voting intention and leadership ratings opinion pollsWelcome to my summary of the latest national voting intention polls for the next general election, along with the latest MRP projections and party leadership ratings. If you'd like to find out more about how polls work, how reliable they are and how to make sense of them, check out my book, Polling UnPacked: the History, Uses and Abuses of Political Opinion Polls, or sign up for my weekly email, The Week in Polls: General election voting intention polls PollsterConLabLDGrnRefLab leadFieldwork Find Out Now 17% (nc) 16% (nc) 11% (nc) 20% (nc) 26% (+1) -10% (4th, vs Ref) 15/4 GB ... (more) |
ALDC by-election report, 16th AprilThere were two principal council by-elections this week, both of which had a Liberal Democrat candidate on the ballot. Northumberland Council, Cramlington South West The Conservatives have gained the seat of Cramlington South West from Reform UK, who only won it themselves in last year's local elections. But the incumbent councillor had to step down owing to illness. The seat was newly created in 2025. Generally, the Conservatives tend to do quite well in Cramlington, though in this specific seat they finished third behind Reform and Labour last year, while the Liberal Democrats did not put forward a candidate. This ... (more) |
The Quiet Revival, my Roman Empire, and other times that I've been proven rightIt is rare that a podcast will make me immediately stop what I am doing. However, this was the case last summer, when the brilliant 'Since Churchill and Attlee' podcast highlighted a study from The Bible Society called 'The Quiet Revival'. The report claimed to show that 16% of 18-24 year olds surveyed (by YouGov) in 2024 were Christian and went to church at least once a month, rising from 4% in 2018. This survey result was not just extraordinary, but frankly, unbelievable. As I read the Bible Society report for myself and googled the coverage surrounding it, I realised ... (more) |
Cuckoo takes one look at UK and flees to FranceThings are worse than the judges thought. Our Headline of the Day Award goes to the Suffolk pages of BBC News. (more) |
The Joy of Six 1505Bee Boileau, Lucas Conwell ans Peter Levell find that Help to Buy schemes don't help the people who most need it: "The affordability gains from the equity loan schemes were concentrated among higher-income individuals. Since these individuals would normally be expected to be able to save for a minimum deposit quite quickly even without Help to Buy, it is likely that these schemes accelerated their first home purchase by a few years rather than making the difference between becoming a homeowner or not in the longer term." "Rebekah Pierre, deputy director of the charity Article 39, said ... posters advertising ... (more) |